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Showing posts from May, 2019

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JUMPS IN MAY, DEFYING TRADE WAR GLOOM

Consumer confidence took a leg upward in May, despite forecasts for a more anemic reading as the trade battle between the U.S. and China weathers on.  Yahoo Finance  reports: Consumers remain optimistic in the face of a volatile market and a widening trade dispute between the U.S. and China, according to new data from The Conference Board, which rose unexpectedly in May. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, a key metric of consumers’ willingness to keep spending, jumped to 134.1, up from April’s reading of 129.2. A consensus forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg saw the index rising to 130, up from the prior reading of 129.2. “Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board.

Home Prices Dropping in Overheated Markets

While home prices rose by 6.9% YOY at the national level in April 2019, this rate still marks the lowest new home price growth in five years, and one in five metropolitan areas is seeing decreases in home prices, according to Realtor.com data. San Jose, Calif. has seen the steepest downward shift at -8.4%. Realtor.com attributes this to a tremendously overheated market – especially after last year, when the median list price soared 28%. The San Francisco metro area is the No. 5 overheated market at -4.1%

SERIOUS DELINQUENCY CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH MARCH 2019

The serious delinquency rate across all mortgage loan types for 1- to 4-unit residential properties fell to 2.0% at the end of March 2019, down from almost 10% in the middle of the Great Recession. The latest National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows a decline across all categories of loans, continuing the downward trend that has persisted since 2009. Serious conventional loan delinquency rates have fallen to 1.7%, while  VA  loan delinquency rates have fallen to 1.9%, and FHA-insured loans down to 3.5%. While the continuing decline of the serious delinquency rates across all loan categories is welcome news, the monthly FHA Single-Family Loan Performance Foreclosure Statistics Trends tells a more nuanced story. Per the latest data, the six-month moving average in foreclosure starts as of March 2019 is the highest it has been since June 2017, totaling 10,344. Additionally, the data show that the number of conventional loans have always far exceeded t

New Home Sales Slip In April

Sales of new single‐family houses in April fell 6.9% from March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 673,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. The pace remained 7.0% above the April 2018 estimate of 629,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in April 2019 was $342,200, up from $305,800 in March and $314,400 in April of last year. The average sales price was $393,700, up from $372,300 in March and $385,100 a year earlier. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 332,000. This represents a supply of 5.9 months at the current sales rate.

More Baby Boomers Staying In Home Instead Of Downsizing

USA Today  reports that a recent study by Trulia shows that a growing number of aging baby boomers are choosing not to downsize their family home as they age. “We’re just not seeing that much downsizing,” says Alexandra Lee, a housing data analyst at Trulia. The ones that are moving to a smaller footprint are doing it later in life. A more modest home typically means less upkeep and a potential financial windfall as a big chunk of the proceeds from the sale of the larger property can help bolster retirement nest eggs. Boomers, however, are defying the traditional bounds of advancing age just as they rebelled against the establishment in the 1960s and work- and family-centered values in the 1970s in favor of self-fulfillment. “They have refused to follow what the traditional expectations were,” says Barbara Risman, a sociology professor at the University of Illinois at  Chicago . There are other forces at work. Boomers, generally those age 54 to 73, are working longer and putting

Lending Conditions Tighten Less Than Expected

The Federal Reserve Board’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) shows tightening of net lending standards from Q4 2018 to Q1 2019, but not as much as they had anticipated in Q4 2018, according to Litic Murali of NAHB’s  Eye on Housing  blog. In the previous quarter’s survey, 11 to 12% of banks reported a likelihood on tightening loan standards for Commercial and Industrial (C&I) loans to large- and middle-market firms, while 25% said they would tighten standards on CRE loans of all sizes. By the first quarter of 2019, only 3 of 71 banks had tightened standards on C&I; the rest had eased them or left them unchanged. Between 13% to 19% of banks reported tightening of standards on CRE loans to middle- or large-market firms during this period, and the rate of tightening varied depending on the type of CRE loan – construction and land development loans, nonfarm nonresidential loans, and multifamily loans.

Mortgage Applications Fall

Mortgage applications fell by 0.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis over the week ending May 10th, 2019, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. On an unadjusted basis, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell by 1% from the previous week. The Refinance Index fell by 1% over the same period, and the seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted Purchase Indices also fell by 1%. The refinance share of mortgage activity remained unchanged this week at 37.9%. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 6.3% of total applications. The FHA share rose to 10.1% from 9.5% the previous week, the VA share fell to 10.6% from 11.1%, and the USDA share remained unchanged at 0.6%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) fell to 4.40% from 4.41% last week. Points for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans fell to 0.40 fr

SERIOUS DELINQUENCY CONTINUES TO DROP THROUGH MARCH 2019

The serious delinquency rate across all mortgage loan types for 1- to 4-unit residential properties fell to 2.0% at the end of March 2019, down from almost 10% in the middle of the Great Recession. The latest National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows a decline across all categories of loans, continuing the downward trend that has persisted since 2009. Serious conventional loan delinquency rates have fallen to 1.7%, while  VA  loan delinquency rates have fallen to 1.9%, and FHA-insured loans down to 3.5%. While the continuing decline of the serious delinquency rates across all loan categories is welcome news, the monthly FHA Single-Family Loan Performance Foreclosure Statistics Trends tells a more nuanced story. Per the latest data, the six-month moving average in foreclosure starts as of March 2019 is the highest it has been since June 2017, totaling 10,344. Additionally, the data show that the number of conventional loans have always far exceeded t

Controversial California Housing Bill Is Dead for the Year

The controversial housing bill known as SB 50 in California has been shunted off to next year's legislature, the Marin Independent Journal reports. A controversial housing bill that called for sweeping changes to California’s zoning rules is dead for the year — a major setback for an ambitious legislative package that aimed to solve the housing crisis, but a triumph for residents worried the zoning overhaul would change their cities for the worse. Senate Bill 50, which would  have allowed fourplexes in neighborhoods zoned for single-family homes and forced cities to approve taller, denser residential buildings near transit stops, was one of the most-watched — and hotly debated — bills of the year. It also was the cornerstone of a group of bills seeking to reform everything from renter protections to residential development, part of an effort to ease the affordable housing shortage that for years has been driving Californian’s costs up and quality of life down. The effort h

Home Values Fall For The First Time Since 2012

U.S. home values fell from March to April, the first month-over-month decline since February 2012, according to the April Zillow® Real Estate Market Report. Despite Hurricane Harvey’s damage, Houston-area home sales increased 8.9% in January while high-end demand continued to slow. The typical U.S. home is worth $226,800, down 0.1% from last month. The decline – led primarily by large West Coast markets – comes after 85 straight months of gains that brought home values to record highs. U.S. home values have experienced declines only twice over the past few decades: during the recession of the early 1990s and the Great Recession and housing crisis in the late 2000s. On an annual basis, home values grew 6.1%. But the pace of year-over-year appreciation has slowed in each of the past four months, falling from 8.1% annual growth as recently as December. Home values fell in 32 of the 35 largest housing markets over April and remained flat in two others. Riv

Builder Confidence UP

Builder confidence rose three points to 66 in May on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released Wednesday. Builder sentiment is at its highest level since October 2018. All the HMI indices posted gains in May. The index measuring current sales conditions rose three points to 72, the component gauging expectations in the next six months edged one point higher to 72 and the metric charting buyer traffic moved up two points to 49. Among the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast posted a six-point gain to 57, the West increased two points to 71, the Midwest gained one point to 54, and the South rose a single point to 68.

CALIFORNIA HOMES GET A BIT MORE AFFORDABLE IN Q1

More Californians could afford to purchase a home in the first quarter of 2019 as lower mortgage rates and cooler seasonal home prices combined with higher income levels to improve California housing affordability, the  CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®  (C.A.R.) reported Tuesday. The percentage of home buyers who could afford to purchase a median-priced, existing single-family home in  California  in first-quarter 2019 rose to 32% from 28% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and from 31% in the first quarter a year ago, according to C.A.R.'s Traditional Housing Affordability Index (HAI). The index climbed above 30% for the first time in a year. California's housing affordability index hit a peak of 56% in the first quarter of 2012. A minimum annual income of $114,860 was needed to qualify for the purchase of a $545,820 statewide median-priced, existing single-family home in the first quarter of 2019. The monthly payment, including taxes and insurance on a 30-year, fixed-rate

Net Zero Homes Are Popular But Rare

Net Zero construction seems poised to go mainstream thanks to more sophisticated building products, better developed building science, and tax incentives for solar.  Net Zero homes are growing, but they only account for less than 1% of U.S. housing stock. 

PROPERTY VALUES SINK WITH CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS

Coastal properties have long been in high demand. Sites that offered a view of the ocean and the rhythmic sound of the waves most often carried a premium price tag. But, now, that premium is threatened by rising tides. Asaf Bernstein, assistant professor of finance at the University of Colorado at  Boulder , did a study that showed that homes exposed to sea level rise sell for approximately 7% less than similar properties.

Where Singles Are Buying

Singles are buying in various regions.  Single homeownership became more popular in various states across the nation. The top 10 cities include three entrants from Pacific Western states, two cities from Mountain Western states, one city from the Midwest, and four cities in the South. Northeastern states are not top contenders.  The only major region not represented in the top 10 is the Northeast. Perhaps in big Eastern Seaboard cities like  Boston  and  New York , the cost is just too high for people living alone to buy their own place. Fewer singles are choosing to buy.  The percentage of single homeowners is on the decline in most of the cities examined. From 2013 to 2017, the single homeownership rate increased in less than half the major cities included in the study.

REALTORS GOT A 5% RAISE LAST YEAR

Realtors' median net income increased 5% from 2017 to 2018, and 67% of all Realtors were female, an increase from 63% last year, per the 2019 National Association of Realtors® Member Profile. The median tenure in real estate decreased from 10 to eight years and the median time spent at a real estate firm was recorded at four years, the same as 2018. The typical Realtor is a 54-year-old white female who attended college and was a homeowner. 16% of Realtors® had a previous career in management, business, or finance, and 15% worked in sales or retail. Realtors® continue to see an overall growth in diversity of membership while a growing number of women are entering the profession. Since 2001, there has been a 20% increase in females and a 120% increase in minorities. Only 4% of Realtors® reported real estate was their first career. 72% of Realtors® said that real estate was their only occupation, and that number increased to 82% among members with 16 or more

Robots Will Be Working In Construction By 2025

A robotics research firm was out Tuesday with a prediction that the value of robotic equipment in place in the construction industries will rise tenfold during the next six years.  Robotics Business Review reports: Research firm Tractica today projected a $226 million revenue market by 2025 for the construction robotics space, an area that traditionally has been labor-intensive and not focused on robotics as much as industries such as manufacturing, supply chain logistics, and health care. In a new report, “ Construction & Demolition Robotics ,” Tractica said growing interest in construction robots will drive revenue from $22.7 million in 2018 to the $226 million figure by 2025. In addition, the firm said more than 7,000 construction robots will be deployed to address several construction and demolition tasks. The largest area in terms of unit shipments will be for robotic assistants used on construction sites, followed by infrastructure robots, structure robots, and finishing

MORE MILLENIALS LIVING WITH PARENTS

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More people age 23-37 are living with their moms than at any time this century, according to a new  Zillow® analysis . Nearly 22% of American millennials – more than 14 million in total – live with their mom or both parents, the highest share for this age group since at least 2000. Courtesy Adobe Stock The share of young adults living with mom has increased steadily since 2001 – more than doubling from 6.8 million (11.7%) to 14.3 million (21.9%). While the economy has recovered since the housing bust and recession of the mid-2000s, young people living with their moms has continued to rise. The share of those living at home that are unemployed has fallen to 10.3% from 19.5% in 2010, indicating that more young people are struggling to afford independent housing even while holding a job. Rents are  on the rise , bringing present-day affordability challenges for those looking to rent and long-term difficulties in saving for a down payment on a first home. Recent Zillow research fo

Home Purchase Sentiment Declines

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) fell 1.5 points in April to 88.3, offsetting some of the prior month's 5.5 point jump and falling 3.4 percentage points behind the same time last year, the GSE reported Tuesday. A decrease in the "Good Time to Buy" component drove the index lower, despite another supportive mortgage rate outlook from consumers. The net share of respondents expecting mortgage rates to go down over the next 12 months has risen a total of 12 percentage points over March and April. The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased 8 percentage points to 14%. This component is down 15 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell a home remained unchanged at 43%. This component is down 2 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of those who say home prices will go up decreased 2 percentage points to 36%

Buyers Prefer Security Cameras Over Other Home Technology Features

Security cameras are the most wanted home technology feature for prospective and recent home buyers, according to a survey conducted by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The survey, "What Home Buyers Really Want (2019 Edition)," found that 46% of respondents wanted a security camera in their home, more than any other home technology feature. Three of the four most wanted features are security-related: along with a security camera, a video doorbell and a wireless home security system are wanted by at least 40% of respondents. However, at most 21% of respondents currently have any one of these technology features installed, indicating that there is market growth potential for these items. In contrast, about the same share of respondents who want a programmable thermostat (44%) have one already installed (41%). Four other home technology features are desired by at least a third of respondents: a multi-zone HVAC system (39%), a lighting control system (36%),

Phoenix is the top destination for people fleeing taxes, crowds and fires in California

25% of Redfin.com home searchers looked to move to another metro area in the first quarter of 2019, up from 23 percent last year, according to a new report from Redfin. The national share of home-searchers looking to relocate currently sits at its highest level on record, tied with the fourth quarter of 2018. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of more than 1 million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across 87 metro areas from January through March. Phoenix re-took the top spot on the list of metro areas, outranking Sacramento with the highest net inflow of Redfin users in the first quarter. A net inflow means more people are looking to move in than leave, while a net outflow means there are more people looking to leave than people looking to move in. The net inflow for Phoenix hit 7,949, the highest level on record not only for Phoenix, but for any metro area to date since Redfin began reporting net migration data in early 2017. The share

Unemployment Falls to 49-Year Low

An unexpectedly robust jobs report for April has provided fresh evidence that the U.S. economy is not slowing down.  MarketWatch  reports: The U.S. created 263,000 new jobs in April to help drive the unemployment rate down to a 49-year low of 3.6%, the latest cue pointing to a rebound in the economy after a slow start in the new year. The increase in hiring was concentrated at white-collar businesses, construction and health care. The only sector to suffer a big drawback was retail, whose employment fell for the third straight month. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.6% from 3.8% in March, marking the lowest level since December 1969,  the Labor Department said . The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 forecast of economists

POPULATION GROWTH SLOWING IN CALIFORNIA

California's Department of Finance is reporting that the lowest population growth rate in history was reached in 2018 with the addition of 186,807 residents, according to the  Los Angeles Times . The overall growth rate slipped to 0.47% last year from 0.78% in 2017 which is the slowest since records started being kept in 1900. Births were down, immigration from Mexico was down while Asian immigration was up. Perhaps the biggest force behind the change is higher education rates among women, Sharygin added. That broader trend historically has been masked by high immigration from Latin America, but that is no longer the case. “More education of women translates into later marriage, later childbirth and then fewer children,” he said. Dowell Myers, professor of demography and urban planning at USC, said the slow growth also was due to a lack of housing. A report this year by a public policy think tank found that California’s housing supply law hadn’t triggered enough new home build

Bulge In First Time Buyers On The Horizon

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Nearly 45 million people in the U.S. will  reach the typical age for first-time home buyers in the next 10 years – 3.1 million more than the past decade, Zillow reported Tuesday, which the company said will create more demand in an already challenging market for those looking to get into their first home. Courtesy Adobe Stock/Monkey Business Images The typical first-time home buyer in the U.S. is 34 years old, according to Zillow's analysis of Census data. There are 44.9 million Americans aged 24-33, or potential future first-time home buyers, compared with 41.8 million people aged 35-44, or potential past first-time home buyers, a 7.4% increase. Zillow said that, for the past several years, the housing market has been characterized by shrinking inventory and higher prices, particularly in the least expensive third of homes, those most likely to be targeted by first-time home buyers. These starter homes have gained 57.3% in value over the past five years, a median increase o