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Showing posts from April, 2019

HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE FALLS IN Q1

The homeownership rate was 64.2% in the first quarter of 2019, virtually unchanged from the rate in the first quarter 2018 but 0.6 percentage points lower than the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (64.8%), the Census Bureau reported Thursday. National vacancy rates in the first quarter 2019 were 7.0% for rental housing and 1.4% for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate of 7.0% was virtually unchanged from the rate in the first quarter 2018, but 0.4 percentage points higher than the rate in the fourth quarter 2018 (6.6%). The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.4% was 0.1 percentage point lower than the rate in the first quarter 2018 (1.5%) but not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2018.

What's Next After White Subway Tile

White subway tile has become a common, de facto choice for any renovation requiring wall tile. The tile choice was considered "both fresh and timeless," TLC and HGTV interior design Vern Yip writes for  The Washington Post . However, after a long period of dominance, many are beginning to wonder what is next in the tile design space after white subway tile. Yip outlines several emerging trends as homeowners move towards individuality in their spaces. Color : It’s hard to imagine that white tile will ever go out of style. After all, white typically signifies cleanliness, a quality most of us unequivocally seek for our bathroom and kitchen spaces. More and more, however, other tile colors have been surging. Warmer toned neutrals, in particular, have risen dramatically in popularity. Warm gray, which has dominated the paint space for years because of its chameleon-like ability to accommodate any style, has now become a hot tile color as well. Pattern and shape : Of all the

California's Senate Bill 50

California is desperately in need of more housing. Home prices are the highest in the continental United States, and population growth continues to outstrip construction. A 2016 study by the McKinsey Global Institute estimated California needs 3.5 million more homes by 2025 — as much as the other 49 states combined. At the present pace of construction, California will add one million units over that period. The most promising proposal to supercharge construction is California Senate Bill 50, which would force local governments to allow higher-density development in areas close to transit and jobs. On Wednesday, the legislation cleared a major hurdle, winning the approval of a State Senate committee. The legislation would rewrite the ground rules for California’s urban and suburban landscape, much of which is zoned for single-family housing or other forms of low-density development. The most dramatic change would require populous counties and cities to allow mid-rise a

Housing Forecast Brightons

Realtor.com ® on Tuesday released a revised 2019 housing forecast, which shows the outlook for the real estate market this year is somewhat stronger than originally forecasted. Based on a shift in the economic outlook and slower pace of monetary tightening, the online real estate destination is now expecting lower mortgage rates of 4.5% by the end of the year, higher home price growth of near 3% and stronger home sales. Falling mortgage rates have given home buyers more purcha sing power to balance rising home prices, but that in turn is allowing for more home price growth than was expected in November. As a result,  realtor.com ® now anticipates home prices in 2019 to be 2.9% higher than in 2018 -- a 0.7% increase over its original prediction. Although home prices are currently growing at 3.5 to 4.0% year-over-year, the rate of growth is far slower than the past few years of 5 to 7% growth, indicating prices are softening. After a 10-year high in 2017, home sales slipped in 20

New Home Sales Up In March

New-home sales picked up in March, rising 4.5% from February and 3% from a year earlier, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced Tuesday. Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2019 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 692,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2019 was $302,700, down from $315,200 in February and from $335,400 in March, 2018. The average sales price was $376,000, down from $385,300 in February but up from $369,200 a year earlier. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 344,000. This represents a supply of 6.0 months at the current sales rate.

BLACK IS BACK FOR BOTH HOME INTERIORS AND EXTERIORS

Today’s homeowners are choosing dark-colored designs and styles for their home’s interiors and exteriors, says The Real Deal  Los Angeles . Since 2017, paint manufacturer Benjamin Moore has seen a 30% jump in the usage of black, specifically hues like “Midnight Oil,” “Black Beauty,” and “Graphite.” The appeal, according to the  Los Angeles Times , lies both in the color’s ability to absorb light and heat and its distinct contrast to other colors and surroundings. Neighborhoods like Venice and Silver Lake in Los Angeles are among the areas that have seen the most black homes pop up, according to the report. Home designers say reflective paint can cool homes by about 10%. Compass agent Stephanie Younger told the Times that black homes appeal to tech executives, young professionals and buyers with a “design-forward sense.” They enjoy the soothing, “restful nature” of black houses. Leatrice Eiseman, executive director of Pantone Color Institute, said black is trending for home inter

March Starts And Permits Slip

Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for March 2019: Housing starts in March fell 0.3% from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,139,000, 14.2% behind the March 2018 rate of 1,327,000, the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced Friday. Single‐family housing starts in March were at a rate of 785,000; 0.4% below the revised February figure of 788,000 and 11% behind a year earlier. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 337,000, down 3.4% sequentially and 21.8% year-over-year. Building permits in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,269,000, 1.7% below the revised February rate of 1,291,000 and 7.8% below March 2018. Single‐family authorizations in March were at a rate of 808,000, 1.1% below the revised February figure of 817,000. Authorizations of units in b

Green Roofs Help Rid Indoor Air Of Pollutants

An emerging trend in the construction industry is environment-inspired innovation. Windows and doors are being manufactured with energy-efficiency in mind to reduce energy bills for homeowners and increase heat retention. Energy Star-rated windows, doors, and appliances are the  most desirable green items for prospective and recent home buyers , according to the National Association of Home Builders' 2019  What Home Buyers Really Want  survey. Another environmental innovation is green roofing. Cleveland-based market research firm The Freedonia Group estimated the market for green roofing vegetation would reach $46.9 million by 2023. While more widely used in commercial applications, a green roof, or vegetated roofing, has began to emerge as an option for residential roofs as well. Researchers from Portland State University have found that green roofs significantly reduce air pollution when compared with conventional roofing materials. The researchers' experiment took place

New Tax Law Has Affected New Home Sales

Based on an analysis of the 7.6% national drop in home sales activity between Q4 2017 and Q3 2018, the Federal Reserve Bank of  New York  suggests that the recent changes to the tax code that took effect in early 2018 contributed to slowing home sales, along with higher mortgage rates and other concurrent factors. During the period reviewed, the top marginal income-tax rate dropped from 39.6% to 37%, reducing the potential savings from itemizing one’s deductions by 2.6 percentage points. Moreover, property tax deductions are now capped at $10,000, meaning that at the margin these state and local taxes are no longer deductible. The mortgage interest deduction was also cut in half, which in effect increases the mortgage rate a homeowner is paying, the researchers argued. The Fed’s research builds on a Realtor.com analysis, which compared home sales activity in counties where a high concentration of households claimed the mortgage-interest deduction with those where that was not the

California Home Sales Slip In March

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in  California  totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 397,210 units in March, according to information collected by the California Association of Realtors from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. After hitting the lowest level in 12 months in February 2019, the statewide median home price bounced back and reached the highest point since October 2018. The statewide median home price rose 5.9% to $565,880 in March from $534,140 in February and was up 0.2% from a revised $564,820 in March 2018. Other key points from C.A.R.'s March 2019 resale housing report include: Sales dropped on a non-seasonally adjusted annual basis in all major regions, with double-digit sales declines in the Los Angeles Metro, Inland Empire regions and San Francisco Bay Area while the Central Coast and Central Valley regions experienced single-digit declines. Non-seasonally adjusted sales in t

OVER HALF OF GEN Z IS SAVING TO BUY A HOME BEFORE AGE 30

According to a Bank of America survey, 59% of Americans aged 18 to 23 want to buy a house within the next five years, and more than half – 52% - are already saving up for a home. Respondents considered saving for a house more important than other life goals or financial benchmarks, including planning a wedding, going shopping, or taking a vacation. Some expected to get help from their parents to buy a home, but more than half of that group said that they would need to pay their parents back. “Despite their young age, this group recognizes that buying a home is not easy and is taking a pragmatic approach,” said D. Steve Boland, head of consumer lending at Bank of America. “Gen Z’ers are also prioritizing saving over frivolous spending and making sacrifices to prove that they are willing to do whatever it takes,” including getting second jobs or moving in with their parents, he said.

More Evidence That West Coast Markets Are Becoming Buyer Friendly

Another sign that the housing market is shifting toward buyers’ favor in 2019: 56 percent of buyers nationwide who purchased a home in the first quarter closed on the very first home they made an offer on, up from 52 percent a year earlier, and the highest first-offer success rate in three years. This is according to an analysis of home offer and purchase data from thousands of people who bought homes with Redfin agents nationwide over the past five years. The biggest year-over-year increases in first-offer success rates were seen in some of the West Coast markets that were  uber-competitive last year . Nearly two-thirds (63%) of people who purchased a home in the  San Jose  metro area in the first quarter of 2019 successfully purchased the first home they made an offer on. A year earlier, only 25 percent of San Jose homebuyers successfully purchased the first home they made an offer on. More than half (53%) of San Diego homebuyers last quarter closed on the home that was the firs

Homeowner's Least Wanted Features

A full two-thirds of respondents to NAHB’s 2019 survey of home buyers indicated that they would not want to buy a home with an elevator in it. According to the NAHB’s What Do Home Buyers Really Want, 2019 edition report, this makes elevators the most unwanted new home or community feature of the survey’s available choices. Wine cellars came in second on the list of features least wanted by home buyers, with 57% of respondents stating that they did not want them in their homes, followed by plant-covered roofs and nearby daycare centers at 50%. The list goes on to include pet wash stations, dual toilets in the master bath, two story family rooms, golf course communities, cork flooring, laminate kitchen countertops, and high density development. All were rejected by at least 46% of buyers. The survey covered new and potential home buyers who had bought homes in the previous three years or were planning to do so in the next three years. Seventy-seven percent of respondents expressed

FRAMELESS CONSTRUCTION AND PAINT FINISHES DOMINATE CABINET TRENDS

Frameless cabinets and paint finishes are among the more popular cabinetry elements right now, according to a survey conducted by  Woodworking Network.  The survey polled 42 companies and 167 kitchen cabinet displays at the Kitchen and Bath Industry Show in  Las Vegas  in February. The survey includes information on finishes, stains, materials, drawers, doors, and cabinet case construction. Case Construction Frameless cabinet construction, which took the top spot for the first time last year, continues to lead with 40% of the displays. In second place were faceframes with full overlay doors, a look that can often mimic the clean appearance of frameless cabinets. Faceframe, full overlay accounted for 30.5% of the cabinets displayed, a decline of 14 percentage points from last year. Moving up were conventional faceframe cabinets, which rose to 25% this year compared to a mere 8% last year. Inset doors were also stronger this year, coming in at 3.6% compared to about half that number

Mortgage Applications Fall

Mortgage applications fell 5.6% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from one week earlier for the week ending April 5th, 2019, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. On an unadjusted basis, the Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, fell 5% from the previous week. The Refinance Index fell 11% over the same period, and both the adjusted and unadjusted Purchase Indexes rose 1%. The refinance share of mortgage activity fell to 44.1% of total applications, down from 47.4% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 7.6% over the same period. The FHA share rose to 9.6% from 8.8%, the  VA  share rose to 11.1% from 10.4%, and the USDA share remained unchanged at 0.6%. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) rose to 4.40% from 4.36% the previous week. Points for 80% loan to value ratio (LTV) loans rose to

ENERGY STAR–RATED WINDOWS ARE THE MOST POPULAR GREEN HOME FEATURE

Many consumers in today’s market are interested in energy-efficient home features, such as solar heating, efficient lighting, and water-saving products. But, according to NAHB’s  What Home Buyers Really Want  survey, Energy Star windows are the most-wanted green feature this year with 89% of prospective homeowners reporting it either as an ‘essential/must have’ or ‘desirable.’ Energy Star-rated appliances follow close behind with 86% and a complete Energy Star-rated home ranks third with 81%. Further analysis provides evidence that for home buyers, a green home is first and foremost an energy efficient home. Except for water-conserving toilets, every one of the top ten green features deals directly with energy efficiency: ‘efficient lighting that uses less energy than traditional bulbs’ (77 percent), ‘windows with triple-pane insulating glass’ (77 percent), ‘insulation higher than required by code’ (73 percent), as well as low-e insulating glass windows (62 percent), a tankless wate

Opinions Of Values Between Appraiser And Homeowners Widen

Homeowners' average estimate of their home's value stayed consistent in March, while appraised values dipped – widening the gap between the two more than 50% since February. In March, the average appraisal was 0.78% lower than homeowners expected, according to Quicken Loans' National Home Price Perception Index (HPPI), compared to the previous month when appraisers' opinions were 0.50% lower than what owners estimated. The National Home Value Index (HVI) reported appraisal values dipped 0.20% from February to March. Home values continued to grow annually, rising 3.37% year-over-year. This is a slowdown from the growth in February, when appraised values rose 5.47% year-over year. At a regional level, home values followed a similar blueprint – making minuscule monthly moves, and modest annual increases. The least-performing area was the South, with a 1.45% dip in appraisal values. The largest month-to-month growth was in the West, where home values increased 0.79%. T

Home Purchase Sentiment Is Up

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) jumped 5.5 points in March to 89.8, reversing last month's slight decline and reaching its highest point since June 2018. The index was 1.5 points ahead of the same month last year. COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home increased 7 percentage points to 22%. This component is down 10 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell a home increased 13 percentage points to 43%. This component is up 4 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of those who say home prices will go up increased 5 percentage points to 38%. This component is down 4 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 7 percentage points to -45%. This component is up 7 percentage points from the same time last year.

Sacramento Market Overview

CoreLogic reports the median home sale figure in Sacramento County increased slightly in February, from $350,000 the previous month to $354,000. But that remains below the most recent high median of $365,000 in September of last year.A recent analysis by the Sacramento Association of Realtors indicates that four out of 10 homes sold recently in Sacramento were in the $300,000 to $399,000 range. Sacramento real estate appraiser and analyst Ryan Lundquist said moderate price increases may encourage buyers and sellers into the market. “Price increases are not going crazy,” Lundquist said. “The market is competitive, but it’s not insane price increases like we saw in the past.” The Sacramento home sales pattern roughly mirrored the Bay Area’s, where the number of homes sold increased from January to February, but remained low compared to past years, according to CoreLogic data. Median home sales in the Bay Area – at $770,000 in February – remain much higher than in the Sa

Latest Mortgage Rates

News Facts 30-year fixed-rate mortgage  (FRM) averaged 4.08% with an average 0.5 point for the week ending April 4, 2019, up from last week when it averaged 4.06%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.40%. 15-year FRM  this week averaged 3.56% with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.57%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.87%. 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage  (ARM) averaged 3.66% with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.75%. A year ago at this time, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.62%.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CALIFORNIA STILL DOWNWARD

According to  The  Sacramento  Bee , recent data from ATTOM Data Solutions shows decreased affordability in 15 counties in California, but Butte County, the site of the Camp Fire, was hit especially hard. Other counties in the state taking losses include Alameda, Los Angeles, Kern, and Contra Costa which all logged rates of less than 100 on the affordability index. . Butte County fell 17 places – more than any other county in the state – on the firm’s affordability index, which measures how much it would cost for an average income earner to buy a house. Much like the rest of  California , the median sales price of a house in Butte County has been rising for years but surged by 17 percent in the last six months. The Camp Fire killed 86 people last November, burning through 153,000 acres and nearly 19,000 homes and buildings. Immediately after the fire residents fled for nearby  Chico  and flooded the housing market in that city, including the mayor of Paradise.

Disputes Over Shovel Ready Developments In SF

According to the  San Francisco Chronicle , city planners are clashing with neighborhood advocates questioning whose projects get approved first in San Francisco. The delays could impact millions of square feet of office projects and 9,000 housing units.  San Francisco Planning Director John Rahaim is expected to weigh-in regarding what is more shovel ready to keep things moving forward but local nonprofits believe approvals should be based on the level of community benefits the projects will provide. The order in which projects get city approval is significant, because those that are not picked will come up against limits imposed by Proposition M, the 1986 ballot measure that caps the amount of new office space that can be approved in a single year. Projects further back in line may have to wait as many as four or five years before winning approvals. How the dispute plays out could impact several lawsuits that themselves could delay development in Central SoMa. After seven years

Serious Delinquency Rates Down

According to Fannie Mae, the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was 0.76% in February 2019, unchanged from 0.76% in January 2019 and down from 1.22% in January 2018. This rate matches the last three months as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August 2007. The serious delinquency rate, which measures the share of mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”, had last peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.72% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (5% of portfolio), 4.58% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (92% of portfolio), only 0.34% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years. The increase late last year in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market. I expect the serious de

Student Loan Debt Still A Problem For Millennials

U.S. student loan debt, which is currently estimated at $1.56 trillion, remains one of the top reasons millennials have delayed the home buying process. According to a recent report from Bankrate.com, 31% of Americans say they currently have or have had student loan debt stemming from their own education. Only 15% of their baby boomer parents could say the same.  Forbes  contributor Ellen Paris has more details on the issue below. Bankrate.com’s Senior Economic Analyst Mark Hamrick based in  Washington  sees it this way. “When we look across the landscape, potential home buyers are among those most adversely affected. When we receive data from the Federal reserve showing student loan debt at over $1.5 trillion, we find it important to connect the dots and see how and where it’s impacting individuals.” For Millennials who have settled in areas like  Boston ,  New York , Washington DC,  Los Angeles  or  San Francisco , even without crushing monthly student loan debt payment, there’

Personal Income Rises In February

According to the most recent data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nation’s personal income rose by 0.2% in February 2019, following a 0.1% drop in January. This increase has been attributed to a rise in wages and salaries, government social benefits to persons, and proprietor’s income. Real disposable income, or income adjusted for taxes and inflation, fell by 0.2%. This follows a 1.0% increase in December 2018 and marks the first decline since April 2018. (This figure was calculated using only personal income due to the government shutdown.) Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.1% in January. After accounting for inflation, real PCE increased 0.1% after a decrease of 0.6% in December 2018. Spending rose slightly in January, primarily because of increases in spending for services, mainly financial services and insurance. On a year-over-year comparison, real personal consumption increased 2.3% in January.

Share of Women In Construction At An All Time High

Between 2017 and 2018, the number of women working in construction trades increased 17.6%, according to a data analysis by the Institute for Women's Policy Research (IWPR). The number of women in the trades rose to over a quarter of a million (276,000) in 2018, according to the analysis. The job growth for women in construction is nearly five times faster than the overall job growth for the sector of 3.7%. The share of women working in construction trades in 2018 is the highe st in twenty years, but women remain strongly underrepresented in the trades: fewer than one in twenty (3.4%) of construction trades workers in 2018 were women. The only other time since 1999 when the share was above 3.0% was in 2006, also a period of high demand for workers in the industry. In the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 and recovery that followed, tradeswomen disproportionately lost jobs in the industry, compared with men. Women’s share of jobs in construction is slightly higher in construction