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Showing posts from March, 2020

Goldman Sachs predicts unemployment will hit 15% this year

The coronavirus crisis and the subsequent national shutdown has already impacted employment in ways never seen before, but it’s likely that things will get worse before they get better. The most recent data from the  Department of Labor  showed  that 3.28 million people filed for unemployment in the week ending March 21, 2020. That figure absolutely shattered the previous weekly high of 695,000 initial jobless claims, which was set in 1982. Data like that is why  Goldman Sachs  economists now say the unemployment rate could climb to a record 15% this year. That’s an increase from the 9% unemployment those same economists were predicting earlier this month, and a far cry from their February  prediction  that unemployment would fall to a 67-year low this year. As the virus’ reach and impact have deepened over the last few weeks, Goldman Sachs economists predict unemployment will skyrocket from the 3.5% where it stood in February. “These forecast changes reflect the net effect

U.S. pending home sales rise 2.4% in February

Pending home sales in February rose 2.4% from the prior month, the second consecutive increase, according to a report Tuesday from the  National Association of Realtors . February’s reading shows the health of the housing market prior to the  coronavirus-induced shutdown , said Lawerence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. According to Yun, February’s data does not capture the significant fallout from the pandemic, or the measures taken to control the outbreak. “Numbers in the coming weeks will show just how hard the housing market was hit, but I am optimistic that the upcoming stimulus package will lessen the  economic damage  and we may get a V-shaped robust recovery later in the year,” Yun said. The COVID-19 pandemic likely will result in   houses sitting on the market for longer periods as Americans are ordered to stay at home, he said. “Housing, just like most other industries, suffered from the coronavirus crisis, but once this predicament is behind us and the habit of social

Mortgage rates drop as the Fed moves to stabilize the economy

The average U.S. fixed rate for a 30-year mortgage fell to 3.5% this week, representing the first decline in three weeks, according to  Freddie Mac . The rate is 15 basis points below  last week’s level  of 3.65% and is more than half a percentage point lower than the 4.06% of the same week a year ago. In addition to a drop in the 30-year fixed-rate, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 2.92%, down from 3.06% last week. However, the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage averaged 3.34%, up from last week’s rate of 3.11%.  The  Federal Reserve’s efforts to stabilize markets  with a pledge of unlimited bond-buying, including mortgage-backed securities, likely caused this week’s rate decline, said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “The Federal Reserve’s swift and significant efforts to stabilize the market were much needed and helped  mortgage rates  drop for the first time in three weeks,” Khater said. “Similar to other segments of the economy,  real esta

Record-breaking 3.28 million people file for unemployment

When  Goldman Sachs  recently predicted that 2.25 million people would file for unemployment last week, it made headlines nationwide (including here on  HousingWire ). That figure would have obliterated the previous weekly record that has stood since 1982. But the actual figure is far, far worse than Goldman Sachs predicted. According to the  Department of Labor , nearly 3.3 million people filed for unemployment in the week ending March 21, 2020, an increase of more than 3 million from the week before (282,000 to 3.28 million). That figure shatters the previous weekly record of 695,000 initial jobless claims, which was set in 1982, and it’s a clear indication of just how bad things are for millions of people around the country. The Labor Department report puts it succinctly: “This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series.”

Real estate companies report spike of demand for virtual home showings

As more people are urged to stay home due to the coronavirus, many are still proving that they are interested in purchasing a home. Although many real estate companies have paused home showings, the desire for digital home showings have risen rapidly. In a new report from  Redfin , the  brokerage said  it saw a 494% increase in requests for agent-led video home tours last week alone. As of Sunday, 18.9% of its tour requests from Redfin.com were video-chat tour requests, which was up from 0.2% at the beginning of March, a 94-fold increase, the company said. “The future of real estate has come earlier than any of us could have anticipated,” Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said in a statement. “The way things are during the pandemic won’t last forever, but at the end of all this, things won’t go back to the way they were either. We hope we’re well prepared.” Redfin announced last week that it would be  suspending open houses  and would move to a virtual home showing environment. “Durin

HUD Halts Foreclosures for 60 Days

The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is suspending evictions and foreclosures for single-family home owners with Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-insured mortgages through April as the nation grapples with the coronavirus. HUD said the guidance issued today applies to homeowners with FHA-insured Title II Single Family forward and Home Equity Conversion (reverse) mortgages, and directs mortgage servicers to: · Halt all new foreclosure actions and suspend all foreclosure actions currently in process; and · Cease all evictions of persons from FHA-insured single-family properties. “This is an uncertain time for many Americans, particularly those who could experience a loss of income. As such, we want to provide FHA borrower households with some immediate relief given the current circumstances,” said Brian Montgomery, FHA commissioner, in a statement. “Our actions today make it clear where the priority needs to be.” HUD secretary Ben Carson also said on Twitt

C.A.R. currently forecasts home sales to decline in single high digits in 2020

Given the recent hit to financial markets, the decline in consumer spending, and the rise in new unemployment insurance claims, C.A.R. has revised its forecast lower for the economy generally and the state’s housing market specifically. C.A.R. is forecasting that the benefit of lower interest rates will be outweighed by deteriorating consumer confidence, the slowdown in economic activity and projected increase in unemployment. As a result, C.A.R. currently expects home sales to be down in the high single digits in 2020 compared with the original forecast from the winter of 2019, which called for a modest increase in closed sales this year. The drop is expected to be steepest in the second quarter. This forecast is contingent on how long it takes for the virus to run its course and public life to return to normal. C.A.R. has developed several scenarios for the impact of the coronavirus on the market with the drop in sales and prices dependent of the length of the recession. At present,

Bipartisan push begins in Congress to allow remote online notarizations nationwide

If “coronavirus” isn’t the phrase of the moment, “social distancing” certainly is. All across the country, people are holed up in their homes in an attempt to limit the spread of the virus. But what happens if one of those people wants to buy a home of their own right now? How are they supposed to close on that home in the age of social distancing? Well, there’s now a bipartisan movement in Congress that would make that much easier. This week, Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) and Kevin Cramer (R-ND) introduced a bill that would allow remote online notarizations nationwide, which would enable many people to close on a home or conduct other legal activities without compromising their social distancing practices. The bill, which is entitled the “Securing and Enabling Commerce Using Remote and Electronic Notarization Act of 2020,” would authorize every notary in the United States to perform remote online notarizations. Currently, nearly half (23, to be exact) of the states in the U.S. a

Bank of America will allow borrowers to pause their mortgage payments

Mortgage relief options are coming fast and furious as the entire country struggles to deal with the spread of the coronavirus. This week, the  Department of Housing and Urban Development ,  Fannie Mae  and  Freddie Mac  announced  that they are suspending foreclosures and evictions for at least 60 days. That was followed by the state of New York  declaring  that certain borrowers in the state could forgo their mortgage payments for up to 90 days. Now, one of the nation’s biggest banks is joining New York in stating that borrowers can pause their mortgage payments. Bank of America  announced Thursday afternoon that it is extending “additional support for consumer and small business clients experiencing hardship from the impact of the coronavirus.” Included among those support options is the ability to defer mortgage payments. According to the bank, Bank of America mortgage and home equity customers can request to defer their payments while the virus crisis rages. The paymen

U.S. housing starts declined in February

Before the  Coronavirus pandemic  tightened its grip on the U.S. housing market, home construction began to ease in February led by a retreat in multifamily units. The nation’s housing starts fell 1.5% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.599 million, remaining 39.2% above 2019’s levels, according to a  Commerce Department  report on Wednesday. “February’s home construction release can be viewed as the calm before the storm and a kind of measuring stick for where  builder activity  stood just before the U.S. coronavirus outbreak began in earnest,” said Matthew Speakman, a  Zillow  economist. “A sharp upward revision to initially reported starts data from January and an almost equally strong February could indicate that builders were in a bit of a rush to get some projects off the ground before the coming  coronavirus storm .” In February, single-family housing starts grew 6.7% from January to 1.072 million units while multifamily starts declined 17% to 508,000 u

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, HUD suspending all foreclosures and evictions

Cities and states across the country are  already suspending  evictions and foreclosures in response to the spread of the coronavirus, but the federal government is taking the biggest step so far to keep people in their homes. President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that the  Department of Housing and Urban Development  is suspending all foreclosures and evictions until the end of April. Beyond that, the  Federal Housing Finance Agency  announced Wednesday that it is directing  Fannie Mae  and  Freddie Mac  to suspend foreclosures and evictions for “at least 60 days.” That would mean the moratorium lasts through mid-May, at least. According to the FHFA, the foreclosure and eviction suspension applies to homeowners whose single-family mortgage is backed by either Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. “This foreclosure and eviction suspension allows homeowners with an Enterprise-backed mortgage to stay in their homes during this national emergency,” FHFA Director Mark Calabria said in a

U.S. homebuilder confidence declines in March

Homebuilder confidence weakened in March as  economic uncertainties  mounted, according to the  Housing Market Index . Sentiment declined by two points to 72 in March, the third consecutive retreat, according to a report Tuesday from the  National Association of Home Builders  and  Wells Fargo . A reading of 50 is the midpoint between positive and negative sentiment. Despite March’s decline, NAHB Chairman Dean Mon said sentiment remains strong because low mortgage rates are expected to boost  demand  in a market with limited inventory. “Builder confidence remains solid, although sales expectations for the next six months dropped four points on economic uncertainty stemming from the  coronavirus ,” Mon said. “ Interest rates remain low , and a lack of  inventory  creates market opportunities for single-family builders.” During March, the index measuring current sales conditions fell to 79 points, while buyer traffic decreased slightly, to 56 and sales expectations over the next

How to Get Ready for a Recession

What a difference a few weeks can make! We started 2020 on a hopeful note, expecting a solid—if moderate—continuation of the longest U.S. expansion on record. The only major obstacles in the housing market, it seemed, would be affordability and availability. Then came the global expansion of the coronavirus epidemic, and in response, the social and economic landscape has shifted. On March 3, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a surprise cut of 50 basis points in its short-term interest rate, the largest reduction in borrowing costs since the 2008 Great Recession. But despite this action, a slowdown in economic activity seems inevitable as consumers and companies cut back on travel, conferences, dining, lodging, and other spending, and talk of a recession is increasing. Traditionally, a recession is marked as a period of two consecutive quarters of decline in the gross domestic product, although other factors also come into consideration. And while historically no two recessions ha

Why Americans Are Denied A Mortgage

Many experts say it is a good time for prospective  homebuyers  to think about making a purchase – but for those who plan on getting a  loan  from a mortgage lender, there are some common reasons an application might be denied. According to a new report from the National Association of Realtors, the main reason homebuyers of all ages reported having their application rejected was their debt-to-income ratio. Thirty-five percent of overall respondents cited this reason – including nearly 60 percent of people aged 65 to 73. The next most common reason was an unspecified “other,” followed by low credit scores (21 percent). Fourteen percent said their income was unable to be verified, while 12 percent said they had insufficient funds for a downpayment. Other  reasons  a mortgage application could get rejected include having an unpaid tax lien, having business debt or not having enough savings or assets, among many others. Overall, about 31 percent of all homebuyers said the mortgag

Gen Xer's Most Likely To Be Denied Mortgages

Mortgage applicants 40 to 54 years old—those in Generation X—have the highest loan denial rates, according to data from NAR’s 2020 Home Buyers and Sellers Generational Trends Report. Low credit scores and high debt-to-income ratios are the chief causes—perhaps lingering problems from the Great Recession. Lenders denied 7% of Gen Xers’ applications, compared to a 5% denial rate across all other age groups

Regulators urge banks to give coronavirus sufferers a break

Federal regulators urged banks such as  Wells Fargo  and  JPMorgan Chase  to work “constructively” with borrowers affected by the coronavirus outbreak, promising the companies wouldn’t get dinged by examiners as long as the measures show good judgment. The joint statement was issued on Monday by the  Federal Reserve , the  Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. , the  Office of the Comptroller of the Currency , the  National Credit Union Administration , the  Conference of State Bank Supervisors  and the  Consumer Financial Protection Bureau . “Regulators note that financial institutions should work constructively with borrowers and other customers in affected communities,” the statement said. “Prudent efforts that are consistent with safe and sound lending practices should not be subject to examiner criticism.” That could mean some form of  forbearance , meaning the banks would give borrowers extra time to pay their mortgages. Other measures banks might take are: Raising credit lines,

Coronavirus may stall U.S. economy

The coronavirus will stall the U.S. economy without causing a contraction, according to a  Goldman Sachs  forecast issued Sunday. GDP growth will slow to 0.7% in the current quarter, the worst pace since the financial crisis, and grind to a halt in the second quarter, said the group led by Jan Hatzius, the investment bank’s chief U.S. economist. The third quarter likely will see 1% growth, and the fourth quarter is expected to post a 2.3% expansion, according to the forecast. “We lowered our Q1 GDP tracking forecast by two tenths over the past week to 0.7% based on a downward revision to January wholesale inventories and declines in U.S. and global trade volumes,” the report said. The investment bank also is predicting the  Federal Reserve  will lower its benchmark rate by half a percentage point at its two-day meeting ending March 18 and another half a percentage point at its meeting a month later. That would put  the rate in the 0.5% to 0.75% range , the lowest in three year

Mortgage Rates Reach Lowest Level in Almost 50 Years

Mortgage rates have just dropped to the lowest level in almost 50 years, compelling both homeowners and home buyers to get off the couch to take advantage of record-level savings on their  mortgage . “The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hit a record 3.29% this week, the lowest level in its nearly 50-year history,” said  Sam Khater , chief economist of mortgage giant  Freddie Mac . “Meanwhile, mortgage applications increased 10% last week from one year ago and show no signs of slowing down." To put this record rate in perspective, 3.29% even dips below levels seen during the housing crisis. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.31% in 2012. At present, 15-year fixed-rate mortgages average 2.79% and five-year adjustable-rate mortgages 3.18%. This news comes in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision on Tuesday to slash short-term federal interest rates by 50 basis points in an attempt to steady markets rocked by coronavirus fears. (A basis point, w