Serious Delinquency Rates Down

According to Fannie Mae, the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate was 0.76% in February 2019, unchanged from 0.76% in January 2019 and down from 1.22% in January 2018.
This rate matches the last three months as the lowest serious delinquency rate for Fannie Mae since August 2007. The serious delinquency rate, which measures the share of mortgage loans that are “three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure”, had last peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.
By vintage, for loans made in 2004 or earlier (3% of portfolio), 2.72% are seriously delinquent. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (5% of portfolio), 4.58% are seriously delinquent, For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (92% of portfolio), only 0.34% are seriously delinquent. So Fannie is still working through poor performing loans from the bubble years.
The increase late last year in the delinquency rate was due to the hurricanes - there were no worries about the overall market.
I expect the serious delinquency rate will probably decline to 0.5 to 0.7 percent or so to a cycle bottom.

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