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First Time & Move Up Buyers Are Facing Stiffer Competition

Lower mortgage rates have drawn out more buyers this fall, but the rapidly shrinking inventory of lower-cost homes—the properties highest in demand—are making it difficult for them to find a home to buy, a new report from realtor.com® shows. This has created more competition between first-time buyers and move-up buyers. Nationwide, inventory levels continue to shrink. In September, inventory levels were 2.5% lower than a year ago, marking a faster rate of decline compared to August, realtor.com® reports. Mid-market homes—those priced between $200,000 to $750,000, which make up the largest segment of housing inventory—showed zero percent of growth in September. That price point is likely poised for its first decline next month, researchers warn. "The mid-tier of housing represents nearly 60 percent of homes for sale on the market, making it a solid indicator of how tight inventory levels are in the U.S.,” says George Ratiu, senior economist for realtor.com®. “After more than a...

Bill that Addresses Housing Crisis Is Signed

Gov. Newsom signed SB 330 which creates certainty for developers constructing new housing units, by permitting no more than five public hearings to approve a proposed housing development if the development is consistent with local planning, zoning and design requirements. Additionally, upon granting housing development approval, local governments will be prohibited from increasing local permitting fees throughout the project’s development, which will create more certainty in the entitlement process. It also streamlines the local permitting process for five years in cities whose populations exceed 5,000 residents and where rents exceed 130 percent of the national average. Finally, it labels California’s housing crisis a “housing supply crisis.” Read C.A.R.’s statement.

Home values had the biggest monthly jump in 5 years

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It looks like homeowners are beginning to see the true value of their homes.  As home values made a jump this month, the average home appraisal in September was 0.49% lower than what homeowners expected it to be that month.  According to the  Quicken Loans  National Home Price Perception Index, this is a positive movement towards owners’ estimated and appraisers’ opinions, since appraisals in August were 0.64% less than expected.  “The HPPI is a reminder to have a good grasp on your area’s unique housing market before you start the mortgage process, for either a home purchase or a refinance,” Executive Vice President of Capital Markets for Quicken Loans, Bill Banfield said. “Underestimating your home value could, understandably, feel like a windfall. But if a homeowner overestimates their home value, the mortgage could need to be reworked when refinancing – possibly even requiring the owner to bring more cash  Quicken Loans’ National HPPI shows a...

Non-tariff escalation of U.S.-China trade war could threaten U.S. housing market

As things heat up in Washington with talk of  escalating  the U.S.-China trade war using “non-tariff” measures, keep in mind: China is the biggest foreign owner of Uncle Sam’s debt and the biggest foreign buyer of U.S. mortgage bonds. In July alone, China’s net purchases of agency bonds totaled $14 billion, meaning purchases minus sales of securities issued by  Fannie Mae ,  Freddie Mac  and  Ginnie Mae . That was more than a third of all foreign net purchases for the month. Liquidity in the mortgage market depends on investors wanting to buy mortgage bonds. If China stopped purchasing agency MBS, that could dent demand and put pressure on home-loan rates to go higher because when demand ebbs, bond issuers have to offer high coupons, which translate into higher mortgage rates, to attract investors. If China wanted a quicker way to destabilize the U.S. economy, it could begin dumping its U.S. Treasuries. U.S.  debt  currently stands at a rec...

Home renovation projects with the biggest payback aren’t the fun stuff

When it comes to home renovation, there are big differences in the projects that make people the happiest and the work that results in the biggest payback at the closing table. New kitchens gave people the biggest thrill, whether they were buyers looking at properties or owners planning to stay put, according to a poll of 20 remodeling projects by the National Association of Realtors. However, new roofing and new floors have the biggest payback, the report showed. A kitchen upgrade typically cost about $38,300 and returned about 52% of that with a higher sale price, according to the report. A complete kitchen renovation that cost $68,000 returned about 59%, NAR said. A bathroom renovation that cost $35,000 returned about 57%, while the addition of a new bathroom that cost $60,000 returned about 50%, the report showed. Adding a new master suite might cost $150,000 and return about 50%, NAR said. A basement conversion to living area costing $46,900 probably would return about 64...

Another rate cut probably on the way for 2019

Federal Reserve  officials  appear open-minded  about additional interest rate cuts this year, and weak economic data could increase those chances. Futures traders say there’s a nearly 80% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the October Federal Open Markets Committee meeting, according to the CME FedWatch  tool . Back in September, the Federal Reserve  cut  its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to keep trade wars and the threat of a global recession – what it delicately called “global developments” – from tanking America’s decade-long expansion. It was the Fed’s  second  quarter-point cut in two months as the central banker tried to provide some help to the economy while keeping a buffer they could use if needed to counteract more severe financial trouble. And minutes from the Fed’s July FOMC meeting  showed  that more rate cuts are likely through the end of 2020.

Nearly all U.S. states saw gains in August

All U.S. states except Vermont had job gains in August, led by 3% increases in Nevada and Utah, according to the  National Association of Realtors . Despite the strong  labor  market, wages aren’t keeping up with home-price gains. Average weekly wages rose 2.9% compared to the 4.7% price appreciation of the median home sales price, the  report  said. In total, payrolls increased by 2.1 million from one year ago, according to the group’s State Employment Monitor. All industries had job gains except for utilities and retail trade. The top gainers were: Health care and social assistance, up 533,000 jobs from a year ago; professional and technical services, up 293,400; accommodation and food services, up 255,900; and construction, up 177,000. The total number of  construction  jobs stood at 6.4 million on a seasonally adjusted level in August, which is 300,000 below the 6.7 million peak in April 2006, the report said. “The lack of construction w...