Housing Starts, A Strong Indicator Of Economic Growth, Lack Momentum

Housing starts fell 0.9% MOM in May. The month-over-month decrease was driven primarily by a 5.0% drop in the multifamily sector, which in recent months has accounted for nearly 40% of total activity.
Housing starts slipped nearly 5.0% year-over-year, with the single-family space responsible, falling 3.3%. Diving into the raw data reveals nearly 21,000 fewer single-family housing units (NSA) begun construction year-to-date compared to the same period in 2018.
When using starts as a predictive indicator, look at a longer-term trend such as the year-over-year growth rate of the 6-month moving average. This data shows a pullback since hitting the peak in April 2016.
While demographics support greater housing development, replacement land, entitlement issues, and costs are making it difficult for supply to ramp up.

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