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Showing posts from February, 2020

Pending Home Sales Rebound In January

Pending home sales rebounded 5.2% in January, following December’s decline that was the largest in almost a decade, according to a report Thursday from the National Association of Realtors. “This month’s solid activity – the second-highest monthly figure in over two years – is due to the  good economic backdrop  and  exceptionally low mortgage rates ,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. While contract signings are up, Yun warned the housing market is still in need of more supply. “We are still lacking in inventory,” Yun said, noting  December’s and January’s combined supply was at the lowest level since 1999 . “Inventory availability will be the key to consistent future gains.” And Yun may be right as year-over-year increases display a  strong desire for homeownership  from the nation’s homebuyers. According to the report, markets drawing some of the most significant buyer attention include Fort Wayne, Indiana; San Francisco; Sacramento, C...

Affordability Continues to Drive Purchase and Rental Decisions

A new Freddie Mac survey shows that affordability remains top of mind for those individuals looking to rent or purchase a home. In fact, Freddie Mac’s "Profile of Today’s Renter and Owner" shows vast majorities of both renters and homeowners believe their current living situation is the most affordable option. However, the survey illustrates that issues of affordability remain pervasive throughout these groups. In addition, the survey takes a look at the impact of the current interest rate environment on buying preferences, including a close look at the preferences of Baby Boomers in particular. Key findings: An unprecedented number of renters (84%) believe renting is more affordable than owning, an all-time high for the survey and up 17 percentage points from February 2018. Regardless, affordability issues continue to affect renters more than owners, 42% of renters paid more than a third of their household income on rent compared to 24% of owners on their mortgage. Gi...

January's new home sales spike 18.6% from 2019

Sales of new homes jumped in January to an annualized rate of 764,000, according to the  Census Bureau  and the  Department of Housing and Urban Development . According to Census data, January’s pace increased from  December , which was upwardly revised from 694,000 to 708,000. January’s total, which is 7.9% above December’s pace, was also 18.6% higher than January 2019, when new home sales hit an annualized rate of 644,000. During the month, new home sales surged boosted by  lower interest rates ,  warm weather  and an  uptick in home building , said Robert Frick, corporate economist for  Navy Federal Credit Union.   “We can expect the trend to continue as  mortgage rates  have fallen even lower in recent weeks, and  more jobs  are  driving up demand ,” Frick said. “However, scant evidence exists that  home builders  are making  more low-priced homes , which are sorely needed by  fir...

U.S. house prices gained 5.1% in Q4

U.S. house prices  increased 5.1% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, matching the pace of the prior quarter, according to the  Federal Housing Finance Agency . It was the first time in two years the FHFA’s House Price Index didn’t show a slowdown in home-price gains, said ​Lynn Fisher, the FHFA’s deputy director for research and statistics. “Falling interest rates and steady job growth renewed housing demand in 2019 and may have arrested the recent deceleration in home prices that began in 2018,” Fisher said in a statement. The FHFA  index  is calculated using sales price information for single-family homes using mortgages sold to or guaranteed by  Fannie Mae  and  Freddie Mac . Because of this, it excludes cash transactions and sales of high-end homes bought with jumbo loans. Across the nine census divisions, the Mountain division saw the strongest appreciation growth, posting a 6.7% annual gain. Appreciation was weakest in the New...

U.S. existing-home sales fall 1.3% in January

U.S. existing-home sales fell in January, declining 1.3% from the previous month’s pace, according to the  National Association of Realtors. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 5.46 million. This means sales are 9.6% above January 2019’s rate. Despite January’s home sales decline, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said 2020’s outlook remains promising. “Existing-home sales are off to a strong start at 5.46 million,” Yun said. “The trend line for  housing starts  is increasing and showing steady improvement, which should ultimately lead to more home sales.” In January, total homes available for sale came in at 1.42 million, up 2.2% from December, but down 10.7% from 2019’s rate of 1.59 million. There was a 3.1-month supply of unsold inventory at the current sales pace, up from 3 in December and down fro...

Governor Newsom calls state's homelessness issue a "disgrace"

In his State of the State speech Wednesday morning, California Gov. Gavin Newsom emphasized the issue of  homelessness in the Golden State , calling it a “disgrace.” In the session, Newsom acknowledged that California residents have “lost patience” with lawmakers who are neglecting the human tragedy. Newsom also said that his second term will put a heavy focus on the affordable housing crisis. “I don’t think homelessness can be solved – I know homelessness can be solved,” Newsom said in his speech. “The  California Association of Realtors  stands with Governor Gavin Newsom and agrees that after decades of neglect we need more housing,” California Association of Realtors President Jeanne Radsick said in a statement. “As the governor said during his State of the State: ‘Doing nothing is no longer an option…we must cut red tape to get to yes on innovative approaches.’ We applaud the governor’s dedication to addressing California’s housing shortage and calling on bot...

Fed calls coronavirus “new risk” to economy

Federal Reserve  officials dubbed coronavirus a “new risk” to the economy at their Jan. 28 to 29 meeting, according to  minutes  released on Wednesday. “The threat of the coronavirus, in addition to its human toll, had emerged as a new risk to the global growth outlook, which participants agreed warranted close watching,” the minutes said. After three cuts to the benchmark rate last year, the Fed reiterated it intends to stay put through the end of 2020 barring a “material development” that could cause a reassessment. In addition to discussing ongoing risks such as coronavirus, the Fed officials at January’s meeting reviewed inflation policy, according to the minutes. Participants discussed three inflation scenarios indicating the central bank might be willing to tolerate a deviation from its target rate for a period of time. The post-meeting statement in January changed its language from the prior meeting to say the Fed wants inflation “returning to” 2% rather t...

Homebuilder confidence slips again in February

Homebuilder confidence slightly fell again this month, according to February’s  Housing Market Index . The last three monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since December 2017. The  National Association of Home Builders  and  Wells Fargo , which publish the monthly report, revealed sentiment slipped by one point to 74. While this is the second consecutive month for the sentiment to fall,  December of 2019  saw a sentiment increase of five points to 75, marking the highest reading since June of 1999. “At a time when demand is on the rise, regulatory constraints along with a shortage of construction workers and a dearth of lots are hindering the production of affordable housing in local communities across the nation,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “And while lower mortgage rates have improved housing affordability in recent months, accelerating price growth due to limited inventory may offset some of that effect.” This month, t...

Coronavirus likely to quash U.S. home sales to Chinese buyers

The coronavirus epidemic that has China on near-lockdown likely will quash U.S. home sales to Chinese buyers, the No. 1 foreign purchasers of American property for the last seven years. “Everything coming out of China is on hold, and that would include, for the most part, Chinese nationals buying U.S. real estate,” said Jonathan Miller, president of  Miller Samuel . Buyers from China accounted for $13.4 billion of residential real estate  sales  in the U.S. in 2019, with more than a third of those purchases occurring in California, according to the  National Association of Realtors . Canada was No. 2, at $8 billion, and India was No. 3, at $6.9 billion. Both of those nationalities favored Florida over California.

There haven't been this few homes on the market since 2013

In the first month of the year, the nation’s home-sale prices increased by 6.7% from 2019 levels, coming in at a median of $306,400, according to  Redfin . Of the 85 largest housing markets Redfin tracks, only three saw a year-over-year decline in the median sale price in January, including San Jose, California; Baton Rouge, Lousiana; and Greenville, South Carolina, which dropped 4.3%, 4.1%, and 1.4%, respectively. During the month, home sales increased by 6.7% year over year, marking the sixth consecutive month of increases. Despite this gain, sales were still down 1.1% from December on a seasonally adjusted basis and homes spent two fewer days on the market than they did in 2018. Redfin attributes this decline to the  nation’s lack of housing inventory , which is causing a crunch in housing markets across the country, even in the nation’s most expensive coastal cities. In January, the active listings of homes for sale fell 11.4% year over year, marking the biggest...

There haven't been this few homes on the market since 2013

Millennials don’t trust lenders or the housing market

One of the most defining characteristics of the Millennial generation’s experience with the financial and housing ecosystems is that of fear. As a result, they have developed a pervasive mistrust of banks, lenders, and the housing market overall.  In one study by  Even Financial , 92% of millennials stated that banks could not be trusted, and over half said they didn’t have anyone to turn to for financial advice.  In a recent home buying event in Los Angeles , attendees consistently shared their fears and insecurities about the topic.  “It’s scary,” said Reina, a 31-year-old homebuyer. “I think in the past there hasn’t been a lot of transparency about the process, and there’s just so many steps that are really intimidating.” There’s a generational gap in how we think about homeownership and the American Dream. Access to homeownership for this generation isn’t just about credit. It’s about access to trustworthy advice, transparent information, and personali...

U.S. home prices jump in Q4 as housing inventory continues to fall

The national median existing single-family home price climbed 6.6% annually to $274,900 in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the  National Association of Realtors . During the quarter, home prices increased in 94% of measured markets, equating to 170 out of 180 metropolitan areas. This is up from the 93% share seen in the third quarter of 2019.  As  housing inventory continues to dwindle , more and more homebuyers are facing affordability challenges due to rising home price appreciation, said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “It is challenging – especially for those potential buyers – where we have a  good economy ,  low-interest rates  and a  soaring stock market , yet are finding very few homes available for sale,” Yun said. “We saw prices increase during every quarter of 2019 above wage growth.” According to NAR, there were only 1.4 million existing homes available for sale at the end of 2019’s fourth quarter. This is 8.5%...

Jobless rate to fall to 67-year low

Call it an “I Love Lucy” rate.  Goldman Sachs  Chief Economist Jan Hatzius said in a note to clients on Monday that he thinks the U.S. unemployment  rate  will fall to 3.25% by the end of 2020. That would be the  lowest  since the 3.1% in October 1953, when Lucille Ball starred in TV’s top show, the Dodgers still played baseball in Brooklyn, and Dwight D. Eisenhower was the U.S. president. But first, we have to get through the “Q1 shocks” from coronavirus and  Boeing ’s December halt to the production of the 737 MAX aircraft, Hatzius wrote. Those two events likely will subtract three-quarters of a percentage point from GDP during the first three months of 2020, he said. In the second half of the year, the labor market will get a boost from a GDP pickup, he said. “The U.S.  labor  market is going into whatever hit we will see from the coronavirus on a strong note,” Hatzius said. “When the near-term drags end, U.S. growth should show a...

Top Colors and Materials for Counters, Backsplashes and Walls

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Homeowners are continuing to choose neutral tones for their remodeled kitchens. In addition to  white, wood or gray cabinets , they’re often selecting countertops and backsplashes in white and gray, according to the latest research out from Houzz. The  2020 U.S. Houzz Kitchen Trends Study  gathered information from nearly 2,600 Houzz users who had completed a kitchen remodel or addition in the previous 12 months, were working on one or were planning to start one in the next three months. Here are six kitchen design trends for counters, backsplashes and walls based on what homeowners are choosing now. White is the top color choice for upgraded countertops in remodeled kitchens. 1. White Is the Most Popular Countertop Color White is the No. 1 choice (31%) for upgraded countertops in renovated kitchens, with multicolored the second-most popular option (25%), followed by gray (15%). Twenty-nine percent of added or upgraded kitchen islands feature a contrasti...

U.S. economy added 225K jobs in January

The U.S. economy added 225,000 jobs in January, boosted by mild weather, and the employment rate ticked up from a five-decade low as more people tried to enter the labor force, according to the  Bureau of Labor Statistics . The unemployment rate rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in the prior month, according to the report. There were 5.9 million unemployed people in the nation, rising from 5.8 million in December. The jobless rates for groups – including men at 3.3%, women at 3.2%, teenagers at 12.2%, whites at 3.1%, blacks at 6%, Asians at 3% and Hispanics at 4.3% – all showed little or no change over the month. The number of long-term  unemployed  persons held its ground at 1.2 million in January, which accounted for 19.9% of the unemployed. Average hourly earnings climbed 3.1% from a year earlier, gaining 7 cents to $28.44. The average workweek for all employees held steady at 34.3 hours. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment in November was revised up to 261,...

What Do First-Time Homebuyers Want From the Government?

The three most popular government actions among first-time homebuyers—lowering interest rates, providing tax credits, and easing lending standards—would all make homebuying more affordable in the short-term, but none would directly address the long-term shortage of affordable homes. Only 24% of respondents would like the government to encourage more home construction, even though it could increase the number of affordable homes for sale in the long-term.  First-time homebuyers with household incomes under $100,000 were the most in favor of lower interest rates, with 69% selecting the option. Recently, the Federal Reserve Bank (which isn’t technically a branch of the government, but does set United States monetary policy) lowered interest rates in an effort to keep the economy growing. But, the Fed has acknowledged that the  economic expansion hasn’t benefited everyone equally , and low-income families have been especially left behind. Chairman Powell stated in the past that...

U.S. employment increases by 291K jobs in January

U.S. employers increased their hiring in January, according to  ADP Research Institute  and  Moody’s Analytics . The National Employment Report indicates that private sector employment increased by 291,000 jobs from  December  to January. However, the number of jobs added in December was revised down from 202,000 to 199,000. Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist, attributes January’s employment gain to the nation’s relatively stable winter weather. “Mild winter weather provided a significant boost to the January employment gain,” Zandi said. “The leisure and hospitality and construction industries, in particular, experienced an outsized increase in jobs. Abstracting from the vagaries of the data, underlying job growth is close to 125,000 per month, which is consistent with low and stable unemployment.” The report indicates that  construction employment  increased by more than 40,000 jobs, and overall the goods-producing sector is pred...

San Francisco's Bid On Affordable Housing

London Breed, the mayor of San Francisco and a strong supporter of liberalizing development in her city and California, has not had much luck pushing new housing ideas through the city’s board of supervisors. Three times the board has  voted to oppose  a statewide bill that would allow taller buildings near transit, and which Ms. Breed supported. The mayor’s proposal to streamline construction of affordable housing and new homes  for teachers  never made it out of legislative committee, while the full board rejected a 63-unit project in the South of Market neighborhood on account of  excessive shadowing . Ms. Breed is now taking her case to voters. On Wednesday, the mayor is expected to submit a ballot measure that would amend the city’s charter so that buildings with a substantial amount of affordable housing — somewhere between 13 and 20 percent of units, depending on size — could sidestep the legislative process as long as they conform to loc...