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Showing posts from September, 2019

Americans want to buy more homes, but will economic uncertainty may be preventing them.

Although more than half of Americans believe now is a good time to buy a home, many are cautious about entering the market, according to the  National Association of Realtors . According to the group’s Q3 HOME survey, 63% of Americans believe now is a good time to buy a home. Of these respondents, 34% say they strongly believe this to be a fact. This reading, although promising, is still a decrease from last year’s percentage. During Q3 of 2018, a whopping 75% of respondents indicated the housing market’s purchasing conditions were favorable, even though mortgage rates then were higher than they are now. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist said while optimism fared well this quarter, the outlook also contains a degree of caution. “ Mortgage  rates  are at historically low levels, so I see no sign of the  optimism  about home buying fading,” Yun said. “However, the fact that slightly fewer are expressing strong intensity compared to recent prior qua...

Appraisals will no longer be required on certain home sales of $400,000 and under

For the first time since 1994, certain home sales of $400,000 and under will soon not need an appraisal after federal regulators approved a proposal to increase the threshold at which residential home sales require an appraisal. Last November, the  Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. , the  Office of the Comptroller of the Currency , and the  Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve   released  a proposal that would increase the appraisal requirement from $250,000 to $400,000, meaning that certain home sales of $400,000 and below would no longer require an appraisal. The agencies deliberated the rule for nearly a year, taking into consideration the more than 560 comments the agencies received about the rule change. Last month, the FDIC and OCC  signed   off  on the rule, but were still waiting on the Fed to approve the rule change as well. Now, the Fed has also given the rule change its stamp of approval, and with all three agencies signing ...

Homebuilding activity at half of 2005 levels

A big culprit to the ongoing housing shortage: The dwindling number of new-home construction over the last several years. A new study from John Burns Real Estate Consulting is putting it into perspective at just how much new-home construction has been lagging: The top 10 housing markets in the country are building at a rate that is 54% lower than they were 14 years ago. Markets like Chicago, Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif., and Las Vegas have been building just 18%, 21%, and 29% from their peak construction levels in 2005 and 2006 respectively, the research shows. Chicago has plunged from the seventh largest new single-family housing market to the 32nd largest. In Atlanta, builders are constructing 36,000 fewer homes than in 2005. Phoenix has built 37,000 fewer in that time. Builders have pointed to ongoing labor and lot shortages and rising costs of materials to explain why they haven’t ramped up calls for more new homes, despite rising calls from the industry to do so. “Cost ...

U.S. new-home sales surge in August on low mortgage rates

Sales of new homes jumped 7.1% in August to an annualized rate of 713,000, getting close to June's 12-year high, according to the  Census Bureau  and the  Department of Housing and Urban Development. The surge in new-home sales, which are recorded when buyers sign contracts, came as interest rates tumbled toward the three-year low of 3.49% reached in the first  week  of September, more than a percentage point below a year earlier, as recorded by Freddie Mac. The August pace, rising from July’s upwardly revised rate of 666,000, was 18% higher than August 2018 when it was 604,000. The sales gain was more welcome news for a housing market that has now seen three solid data releases in the span of a week, and may well have been expected given recent positive trends in  home construction  and a  still-robust labor market , said  Zillow  Economist Matthew Speakman. “These solid fundamentals have allowed builde...

U.S. home-price gains were lethargic in July

July 2019 saw an annual increase of 3.2% for home prices nationwide, matching the  previous  month's pace, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index from  S&P Dow Jones Indices  and  CoreLogic . The 10-City and 20-City composites reported a 1.6% and 2% year-over-year increase, respectively. During the month, 15 of 20 cities reported increases both before and after seasonal adjustment.   “Year-over-year home prices continued to gain, but at ever more modest rates,” says Philip Murphy, managing director and global head of index governance at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Charlotte surpassed Tampa to join the top three cities, and Seattle may be turning around from its recent negative streak of YOY price changes, improving from -1.3% in June to -0.06% in July.” According to the index, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Charlotte reported the highest year-over-year gains among all of the 20 cities. In July, Phoenix led with a 5.8%...

Existing-home sales outperform the market's potential in August

In August, potential existing-home sales increased from the previous month, exceeding the market’s potential, according to  First American ’s Potential Home Sales Model. “The housing market exceeded its potential in August 2019, as actual existing-home sales were 0.8% above the market’s potential,” First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming said. “Housing market potential increased relative to last month but declined 1.9% compared with August of last year.” Although existing-home sales have outperformed market potential for the last six months, the performance gap has been very small. In fact, when the actual level of existing-home sales is significantly above the market potential for home sales, the likelihood of a market correction increases, Fleming said. According to the company’s analysis, the market potential for existing-home sales fell from 2018, equating a loss of 102,760 sales. This means that potential existing-home sales are 23.1% below the pre-recession peak ...

Fed Rate Cuts Not Likely Done Yet

Long-term interest rates bounced a little after the Federal Reserve cut its short-term rate but indicated that it may stop cutting.  The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter-point, to a range of 1.75% to 2%, but the “dot plot,” a chart of Federal Open Market Committee members’ expectations of the future path of interest rates, showed a gradually rising trend over the next two to three years. However, in his press conference on September 18, Fed Chair Jerome Powell again emphasized that the future path of Fed actions will depend on whether risks posed by the trade war and the global economic slowdown subside or strengthen. The Fed will likely cut rates once more this year, on October 30, and then adopt a wait-and-see attitude on further cuts.  Of course, the FOMC members will publicly expect the economy to gradually improve, and rates to therefore gradually rise. But they are keen to stay ahead of possible negative developments, and the full impact of the trade war...

Foreclosure starts plummet to 18-year low

Foreclosure starts in August sank to their lowest level in more than 18 years, according to the latest First Look report from  Black Knight . Foreclosure starts fell to 36,200 for the month, down more than 23% from the same time last year, the report showed. This is actually the lowest number for any single month since December 2000. In fact, the number of loans in active foreclosure continued to improve, dropping to 253,000. This represents the smallest level since 2005. And even as foreclosures are decreasing, low interest rates are making their market and increasing prepayments by 5% from July to August, marking a three-year high. August’s prepayment rate increased 62% from August 2018, and was up 250% from the 18-year low hit back in January this year. Black Knight’s report showed that, given a 30 to 45 day closing window, August’s prepayment activity could reflect the interest rates reached in June and July. Rates didn’t fell to their most recent lows until August a...

10 Times To Hire A Landscape Architect

1. You Want a Landscape Design That Fits With Your Home’s Architecture 2. You Want to Create Terraces or Retaining Walls 3. You Want a Complete Landscape Plan 4. You Want to Add Value to Your Home 5. You Want an Environmentally Minded, Sustainable Landscape 6. You Have a Challenging Feature to Work Around 7. You Live in a Flood Plain or Other Sensitive Area 8. You Have Concerns About Fire, Hurricanes or Mudslides 9. You Want to Make the Most of Your Lot 10. You Want to Design Your Ultimate Outdoor Room

Buying A Home In A Good School District Can Pay Dividends

According to the  National Association of Realtors  2015 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, 25% of homebuyers said that school quality was a key in their home search, and 20% said proximity to schools is also a factor.  NAR found in 2017 that 26% of homebuyers said quality of schools was important when finding a new home. And typically, better home plus better school district equals higher resale value.  Some research shows that if you live in a good school district, your home can hold better value in an economic downturn.  Realtor.com  said that homes in good school districts sell on average eight days faster and get 26% more online views than homes in average districts, and retain their value as long as their schools' rating remains high. A 2013  realtor.com survey  of about 1,000 prospective home buyers said that 91% of them thought school boundaries were important when search for their new home. In a recent...

Fed Cuts Rate By .25%

The  Federal Reserve  cut its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point in a bid to keep trade wars and the threat of a global recession – what it delicately called “global developments” – from tanking America’s decade-long expansion. President Donald Trump reacted to the cut by tweeting: “Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No 'guts,’ no sense, no vision!” On Monday, Trump had pressed on Twitter for a bigger cut, saying: “Jay Powell & the Fed don’t have a clue” and “Big Interest Rate Drop, Stimulus!” It was the Fed’s  second  quarter-point cut in two months as the central banker tried to provide some help to the economy while keeping a buffer they could use if needed to counteract more severe financial trouble.  “This is a time of difficult judgments,” Powell said in a news conference. “The main takeaway is: This is a committee that has shifted its policy stance repeatedly, consistently, through the course of the year to sup...

Homeowners Feeling Good About The Economy

For all of 2019,  BuildFax  Housing Health Reports have revealed that single-family housing authorizations – what some consider a  key indicator  of historic recessions – have been decreasing.  Put simply,  construction activity seems to be  slowing down  each month. Most recently, single-family housing authorizations decreased by 1.06% from July to August. That puts it at a 4.17% decline year over year, making for the third straight quarter of declines in 2019, according to the latest data released by BuildFax. “As declines across key economic indicators hint at an economic slump, talk of a potential recession has amplified. It’s difficult to definitively say whether one is imminent. However, heightened tensions surrounding a probable recession has put increased scrutiny on the declining single-family housing authorization index, which has a high correlation to historical recessions,” said BuildFax CEO Holly Tachovsky. “The potential shift...

Homebuilders Are Feeling Better About The Housing Market

Homebuilder confidence came in at 68 points in September,  rising  from August’s upwardly revised reading of 67, according to the  National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo  Housing Market Index. According to the index, September’s level now marks the highest reading since  October  of last year. “ Low interest rates  and  solid demand  continue to fuel builders’ sentiments even as they continue to grapple with ongoing supply-side challenges that  hinder housing affordability , including a shortage of lots and labor,” NAHB Chairman Greg Ugalde said. In September, the index measuring current sales conditions rose from 73 to 75 points, while buyer traffic remained unchanged at 50. However, expectations over the next six months fell a single point to 70. “Solid  household formations  and attractive mortgage rates are contributing to a positive builder outlook,” NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz ...

More renters are seeking out lower cost metros

Renters in Los Angeles, Boston, New York and Seattle are more likely to search for housing in more affordable areas, according to a new survey from  HotPads .  The report showed that i n 44 of the 50 largest U.S. metro areas, renters looking from outside the area are most likely to be searching from a place with a more expensive median rent, meaning that renters are potentially considering moving to a location where the rent is cheaper than what they're paying now. Meanwhile, in five of the other six metro areas, the share of renters searching from within the area for rental homes or apartments declined in the past year, which suggests that fewer renters in these comparatively expensive places are searching locally, according to HotPads. HotPads found that renters in Los Angeles were more likely to search for somewhere to live in Riverside, where the median rent is $985 less per month. The median rent for the United States is $1,560. The report noted that ...

Millennials, priced out of homes locally, shop for investment properties online

Many millennials have been priced out of homeownership in the expensive coastal cities in which they work. They’re entering the real estate game through investment properties, which they manage online, in midsize, emerging markets.

Housing Sentiment Inches Higher

Fannie Mae’s 2019 Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in August by 0.1 points to  93.8 . The HPSI is up 5.8 points compared to the same time last year. The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a home decreased 1 percentage point to 25%. This component is up 4 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of those who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased 4 percentage points to 40%. This component is up 2 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of those who say home prices will go up over the next 12 months decreased 1 percentage point to 36%. This component is down 2 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of Americans who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months increased 11 percentage points to -17%. This component is up 35 percentage points from the same time last year. The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job over the n...

Fed almost certain to cut rates in September

The  Federal Reserve  is expected to cut rates once again when the Federal Open Markets Committee meets in September. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell responded that the Fed would act “as appropriate” in order to maintain the current economic expansion.  In fact, the Fed funds futures are giving a rate cut a 100% chance in September’s meeting. “Our obligation is to use our tools to support the economy, and that’s what we’ll continue to do,” Powell said at the University of Zurich, according to an article by John Revill and Brenna Hughes Neghaiwi for Reuters. However, Powell did float out that there is disagreement in the ranks about the direction the Fed should take, the Reuters article pointed out. “We are clearly at a time where there is a range of views,” Powell said. The Fed minutes from the July meeting showed that more rate cuts  are likely  through the end of 2020. At the end of its most recent July meeting, the Federal Reserve  c...

Housing Affordability Roadblocks and Construction Innovation

The HIVE (Housing Innovation Vision Economics) Home Builder Survey took responses from single-family and multifamily builders around the United States to identify key issues of interest to the homebuilding industry. The survey found that labor cost and availability is the number one issue related to housing affordability for both single-family and multifamily builders. The cost and availability of building materials (especially lumber and plywood) is also a serious problem. Based on the survey, there has been relatively little change in the construction methods of building homes over the last forty years. However, there’s also an indication that change is coming — albeit slowly. A number of builders plan to increase the use of innovative construction methods over the next five years, and they recognize that more factory-built/mo

Nearly all homebuyers are happy they stopped renting

Despite  recent data  from  Freddie Mac  showing that more than 80% of renters view renting as more affordable than buying a home, new data from  Bank of America  shows that the vast majority of renters who made the plunge into homeownership have no regrets about their decision. In fact, the new report from Bank of America shows that 93% of people who bought a home are happier than they were when they were renting. The study, which is based on a national sample of more than 2,500 people, asked several questions, including “Does owning a home make you happier than renting?” To that question, 93% of the respondents answered yes, while only 7% said no. Beyond that, more than 80% of homeowners said they wouldn’t go back to renting. According to the study, 88% of homeowners agree that buying a home is the “best decision they have ever made,” while 79% believe that owning a home has changed them for the better. As for what contributes to homeowners’ ...

Millennials would pay 4 times more than Boomers for ability to choose neighbors

The options are endless when purchasing or renting a home. Homebuyers and renters alike have their pick of locations, floorplans and price ranges, but one thing is totally out of their control: Who they live next to. As it turns out, some would be willing to shell out some real cash to handpick the people they live around.  In a  study  from  Rent.com,  surveyed people living in multifamily homes admitted they were willing to pay an average of $179 per month on top of existing expenses just to choose who lived next door. While those living in single-family homes wouldn’t give up as much, they were still willing to spend $157. The survey broke the price responses down by generation as well and found that Millennials are much more willing – if not desperate – to pay the price to pick neighbors. The younger generation was willing to pay $203 per month, while Generation X would sacrifice $145 and Baby Boomers would give up no more than $45, accordin...

Bidding Wars Fall To 8 Year Low

Reaching a historic new low, only 10.4% of offers on homes written by  Redfin  agents in August faced a bidding war. Last month, that number was 11.4%. Last year, that number was at 42%. August's total is the lowest bidding war rate on record since 2011, according to Redfin.  “Despite remaining near three-year lows, mortgage rates have failed to bring enough buyers to the market to rev up competition for homes this summer,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.  The national bidding war rate reached a high in March 2018 of 59%. This number began to drop as homebuyers faced higher prices of homes and rising mortgage rates, Redfin said. The most competitive market in August was San Francisco, with 31% of offers written facing a bidding war, down 0.8% from July. This time last year, 73.5% of offers faced bidding wars in San Francisco.  The market that follows San Francisco with the second highest bidding rate is San Diego, which saw a bidding ...

Home Price Gains Should Pick Up Speed

Home-price gains will pick up speed in the coming year, with a 5.4% jump in the 12 months following July 2019, according to a forecast from CoreLogic. That would be a faster pace than the 3.6% annualized increase seen this July,  CoreLogic  said. Low mortgage rates coupled with a scarcity of  inventory  are driving gains in home prices because lower financing costs mean borrowers can qualify for bigger mortgages. A shortage of homes for sale, especially in lower-price segments of the market, are giving sellers the opportunity to hold out for the prices they want.  Also supporting home-price gains is an increase in U.S. household income, said Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s chief economist. The unemployment  rate  was 3.7% in July, near May’s 3.6% that was lowest level since the 1960s. That’s forcing employers to pay higher wages to keep good workers. The U.S. median annual household income in June was 1.8%  higher  than a year earlier,...

Home prices are rising faster in car-dependent housing markets

For many Americans, the causal stroll around the neighborhood is an important part of day to day life. But as homebuyers continue to  grapple with rising home prices , a new report from  Redfin  suggests that many are now prioritizing affordability over walkability. According to the company’s data, home-sale prices in car-dependent housing markets across the country increased 4.3% year over year to a median of $312,100 in July. However, home-sale prices in walkable neighborhoods across the country rose 2.3% year over year to a median $343,900. Redfin indicates that home prices have been rising much faster in car-dependent neighborhoods since September 2018, which is around the same time the housing market began to cool. “For at least the four years prior, home prices generally increased faster in walkable neighborhoods than in car-dependent ones,” Redfin writes. "The trend reversal likely reflects that many homebuyers, chasing affordability, have been p...

Guide To Top Outdoor Counter-tops

Granite: Fits Just About Anywhere Pros often mentioned granite as the most practical surface for a wide variety of situations. Granite plays well with a variety of styles, fitting in equally well in a modern setting and a farmhouse one; the latter is seen in this inviting space designed by  K&D Landscape Management  in Chicago. Pros It is durable and won’t be damaged by heat. When sealed properly, it is resistant to stains, mold and mildew. The colors won’t fade from sun exposure. Cons Granite can be more expensive than some other options. Tile: Timeless and Affordable Tile is another option, although it’s suitable outdoors only in regions with warm weather.  Pros It is generally more affordable than other options. Tile varieties and styles are numerous; you can find just about any look you want. If you damage a tile, it’s easy to replace it without having to redo the whole surface. Cons Freezing temperatures can cause the grout to crack. T...